It all depends on Bitcoin’s close of the month on January 31, 2019
For the first time since July 2019, the Bitcoin price will end a full month with a higher low. For six consecutive months the Bitcoin price has had a lower low, indicating a steep downward trend over a longer period.
It is feared that the latest upswing is merely a relief rally after half a year of downward trend. Should this be the case, the Bitcoin bear market could continue into 2020. The key level that will decide whether Bitcoin will finally break out of the downtrend and begin an extended rally is $9,153.
A month-end close above this level, which corresponds to the month opening for November 2019, would indicate that BTC is entering a new growth phase. A top trader in crypto currencies, known as DonAlt, explained this:
“IF THIS IS A BEAR MARKET RALLY, IT WILL END THIS MONTH. IF THIS IS A BULL MARKET RALLY, YOU SHOULD BE BETTER POSITIONED. THE END OF THE MONTH WILL BE FUN, IT’LL EITHER BE A BATTERED BEAR OR BULL DREAMS.”
The Bitcoin price has risen by 23 percent this month, in less than 18 days. A clean break above $9,153 would mean that the Bitcoin price will end the month with a 27 percent gain.
What happens if it breaks this important level?
If Bitcoin starts a new extended rally, there is a strong chance that BTC will try to reach the record level. In the long term, according to technical analyst Josh Rager, the next record high will probably be $75,000 to $85,000.
“THE NEXT BITCOIN HIGH WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS MOST PEOPLE THINK. MANY ANALYSES SHOW THAT THE SIMPLE RETURN OF $100,000 OVER $300,000 TO $1M FROM BOTTOM TO TOP DECREASES BY ABOUT 20% PER CYCLE IMO, THE NEXT HIGH IS $75,000 TO $85,000.”
This range is much narrower than the numbers often touted by investors. But $75,000 would mean a market capitalization of $1.57 trillion for Bitcoin. This level would allow BTC to act as a true safe haven and store of value and become a real alternative to assets such as gold.